The effect of reference sample composition and size on dental age interval estimates.

OBJECTIVES: Validation studies in juvenile dental age estimation primarily focus on point estimates while interval performance for reference samples of different ancestry group compositions has received minimal attention. We tested the effect of reference sample size and composition by sex and ancestry group on age interval estimates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The dataset consisted of Moorrees et al. dental scores from panoramic radiographs of 3334 London children of Bangladeshi and European ancestry and 2-23 years of age. Model stability was assessed using standard error of mean age-at-transition for univariate cumulative probit and sample size, group mixing (sex or ancestry), and staging system as factors. Age estimation performance was tested using molar reference samples of four sizes, stratified by year of age, sex, and ancestry. Age estimates were performed using Bayesian multivariate cumulative probit with 5-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: Standard error increased with decreasing sample size but showed no effect from mixing by sex or ancestry. Estimating ages using a reference and target sample of different sex reduced success rate significantly. The same test by ancestry groups had a lesser effect. Small sample size (n < 20/year of age) negatively affected most performance metrics. DISCUSSION: We found that reference sample size, followed by sex, primarily drove age estimation performance. Combining reference samples by ancestry produced equivalent or better estimates of age by all metrics than using a single-demographic reference of smaller size. We further proposed that population specificity is an alternative hypothesis of intergroup difference that has been erroneously treated as a null.

Bone-specific median age of hand-wrist maturation from Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Maturation of bones in the hand-wrist region varies among individuals of the same age and among world groups. Although some studies from Africa report differences to other ethnic groups, the lack of detailed bone-specific maturity data prevents meaningful comparisons. AIM: The aim of this study was to describe bone-specific maturity for developing hand-wrist bones in individuals in Khartoum, Sudan. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The sample was selected from healthy patients attending a dental hospital in Khartoum with known age and ancestry (males = 280, females = 330; aged between 3 and 25 years). Bones were assessed from radiographs of the left hand and wrist after the Greulich and Pyle Atlas (1959). Median ages of attainment for bone stages were calculated using probit analysis for each stage in males and females separately. RESULTS: Maturity data for stages of the phalanges, metacarpals, carpals and radius and ulna in males and females are presented. Median ages in females were earlier compared to males for all stages. These results are largely earlier than previously published findings or where these could be calculated. CONCLUSION: These results of individual maturity stages of phalanges, metacarpals, carpals and the distal epiphyses of the radius and ulna are useful to assess maturity in growing individuals from Sudan.

Patterns of permanent incisor, canine and molar development in modern humans, great apes and early fossil hominins.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to quantify the variation in coincident stages of incisor, canine and molar eruption and tooth formation in modern humans and great apes and then to ask if any early fossil hominins showed a dental development pattern beyond the human range and/or clearly typical of great apes. DESIGN: Four stages of eruption and 18 stages of tooth development were defined and then scored for each developing tooth on radiographs of 159 once-free-living subadult great apes and on orthopantomographs of 4091 dental patients aged 1-23 years. From original observations, and from published images of eleven early fossil hominins, we then scored formation stages of permanent incisors when M1 was at root formation stage R»-R½ and R¾-RC. RESULTS: Incisor and canine eruption/development was delayed in great apes relative to molar development when compared with humans but there was overlap in almost all anterior tooth stages observed. Molar crown initiation was generally advanced in great apes and delayed in humans but again, we observed overlap in all stages in both samples. Only two fossil hominin specimens (L.H.-3 from Laetoli, Tanzania and KNM-KP 34725 from Kanapoi, Kenya) showed delayed incisor development relative to M1 beyond any individuals observed in the human sample. CONCLUSIONS: For certain tooth types, the distribution of formation stages in our samples showed evidence of generally advanced or delayed development between taxa. However, it would rarely if ever be possible to allocate an individual to one taxon or another on this basis.

Prior Probabilities and the Age Threshold Problem: First and Second Molar Development.

Dental development has been used to assess whether an individual may be below or above an age that serves as a legal threshold. This study used development of the first and second mandibular molars from a large sample of individuals (N = 2,676) to examine the age threshold for minimum age of criminal responsibility. A bivariate ordered probit model was applied to dental scores following the Moorrees et al. (1963) system, with the addition of a crypt-absent/present stage. Then a 10-fold cross-validation within each of the sexes showed that the bivariate models produce unbiased estimates of age but are heteroskedastic (with increasing spread of the estimates against actual age). To address the age threshold problem, a normal prior centered on the threshold is assumed, and the product of the prior and the likelihood is integrated up to the age threshold and again starting at the age threshold. The ratio of these two integrals is a Bayes factor, which because the prior is symmetric around the threshold, can also be interpreted as the posterior odds that an individual is over versus under the age threshold. It was necessary to assume an unreasonably high standard deviation of age in the prior to achieve posterior odds that were well above "evens." These results indicate that dental developmental evidence from the first and second molars is of limited use in examining the question of whether an individual is below or over the minimum age of criminal responsibility. As the third molar is more variable in its development than the first two molars, the question of dental evidence regarding the age of majority (generally 18 years) remains problematic.

A Reappraisal of Developing Deciduous Tooth Length as an Estimate of Age in Human Immature Skeletal Remains.

This study provides an update on a quantitative method for immature age estimation based on postnatal deciduous mandibular tooth length. Two known sex and age skeletal collections from Western Europe were sampled (n = 97). Linear regression models for age estimated were calculated for each individual tooth, each sex, and sex combined sample using classical calibration. Prediction errors, residuals, and percentage of individuals whose real age fell within the 95% prediction interval were calculated. The teeth which develop earlier in life, the incisors and the first molar, showed the greatest precision, while the canine showed the least. This method has greater applicability to archeological skeletons or to children in developing countries than for use in North American or European forensic contexts. The method can be applied to incomplete or poorly preserved remains of unknown sex, particularly when dental radiographs are not an option or when teeth have been removed from the alveolus or crypt.

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases.

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age-of-attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes' factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age-within-stage versus age-of-attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.

Estimating age using permanent molars and third cervical vertebrae shape with a novel semi-automated method.

Estimating chronological age accurately in young adults is difficult and additional methods are required to increase the accuracy. This study explored a new semi-automated method to assess shape change of third cervical vertebra (C3) with age in the living; comparing this as a method to determine whether individuals could be categorised into being less than 18 years of age (<18), or at least 18 years of age (≥18) with tooth formation of the second and third mandibular molars (M2 and M3). The sample was panoramic and lateral skull radiographs of 174 dental patients (78 males, 96 females aged 15-22 years). Twelve variables were compared in two age categories: younger than 18 and at least 18 years of age in males and females separately using a t-test. Tooth formation of M2 and M3 was assessed. Mean values of eight variables of C3 in males and one variable in females were significantly different between the two age categories (p < 0.05). Results for males showed that the best age indicator for age ≥18 was the ratio between height and width of C3 and for females, the ratio between diagonals. Results for molars showed that M2 was mature in 69% of males and 83% of females, within the expected age range of 14-16 years. M3 was highly variable ranging from stages 6-14 for both; M3 was missing in 24% of males and 28% of females and mature in 14% of males and 15% of females. The conclusion was that shape change of C3 has potential as an additional method to group individuals <18 and ≥ 18 years of age.

Dental age estimation in a group of Kenyan children using Willems' method: a radiographic study.

BACKGROUND: Radiographic study of developing teeth provides a reliable indication of chronological age. In Kenya, dentists are often required to estimate age. However, there is a paucity of publications on the performance of dental age estimation methods. AIM: To determine the accuracy of Willems' method of dental age estimation. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was done at The University of Nairobi Dental Hospital. Panoramic radiographs of children aged 3.00-16.99 years old were studied. Dental age was estimated according to Willems' method and compared to chronological age and the difference compared to zero using a t-test. RESULTS: Radiographs of 187 (47%) females and 214 (53%) males were analysed. Willems' method significantly over-estimated the mean overall age by -0.24 ± 1.17 years (p < .000). Age was over-estimated in girls by -0.10 ± 1.18 years (p = .254); however, age in boys was significantly over-estimated by -0.37 ± 1.14 years (p < .000). CONCLUSIONS: Willem's model over-estimated dental age slightly and the method performed better in estimating the age of girls compared to boys. The majority of the children had their age estimated within 1 year of their chronological age. This suggests that Willems' method is suitable for estimating the ages of individual children in Kenya.

Skeletal maturity of the hand in an East African group from Sudan.

OBJECTIVES: Studies of skeletal maturity from Africa indicate a delay, reflected in a negative relative skeletal age (RSA). This study aims to evaluate the influence of age, socioeconomic status (SES) and nutritional status on skeletal maturation in a large sample of children from North Sudan. MATERIALS: The sample consisted 665 males and 1018 females from 3-25 years from Khartoum. Height, weight, age of menarche and, SES were recorded of patients attending for dental treatment. METHODS: Skeletal age was assigned from hand-wrist radiographs using the Greulich-Pyle (GP) atlas (1952). RSA (difference between skeletal and chronological ages) was compared in groups divided by age, sex, height-for-age and body-mass-index z scores, and SES. Spearman's correlation and student t-test was used to compare groups. RESULTS: Delayed skeletal age was noted across all age in boys. In girls, a delay was observed between ages 6-10, while advancement occurred between ages 13-18. Maturity was delayed in low height groups (p < .05) and low SES groups. RSA was negatively associated with HAZ in low SES males (R = -0.0.27, p < .001) and low SES females (R = -0.32, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: There were statistically significant skeletal delays in North Sudanese males and most pre-menarche females, low height and low SES groups. Post-menarche females were advanced relative to males and GP references. Low SES impacts were statistically correlated to skeletal delay.

The timing of mandibular tooth formation in two African groups.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic differences in the timing of human tooth development are unclear. AIM: To describe similarities and differences in the timing of tooth formation in two groups of Sudanese children and young adults. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The sample consisted of healthy individuals from Khartoum, Sudan, aged 2-23 years. The Northern group was of Arab origin (848 males, 802 females) and the Western group was of African origin (846 males, 402 females). Each mandibular left permanent tooth from first incisor to third molar was assessed from dental radiographs into one of 15 development stages. Mean ages at entry for 306 tooth stages were calculated using probit regression in males/females in each group and compared using a t-test. RESULTS: Mean ages were not significantly different in most tooth stage comparisons between ethnic groups for both males (61/75) and females (56/76), despite a tendency of earlier mean ages in the Western group. Mean ages for most tooth stage comparisons between males and females (137/155) were not significantly different within ethnic groups suggesting low sexual dimorphism. CONCLUSION: The mean ages of most mandibular tooth formation stages were generally not significantly different between ethnic groups or between males and females in this study.

A Reappraisal of Developing Permanent Tooth Length as an Estimate of Age in Human Immature Skeletal Remains.

This study expands on existing juvenile age prediction models from tooth length by increasing sample size and using classical calibration. A sample of 178 individuals from two European known sex and age skeletal samples was used to calculate prediction formulae for each tooth for each sex separately and combined. Prediction errors, residuals, and percentage of individuals whose real age fell within the 95% prediction interval were calculated. An ANCOVA was used to test sex and sample differences. Tooth length for age does not differ between the samples except for the canine and second premolar, and no statistically significant sex differences were detected. The least prediction error was found in the incisors and the first molar, and the highest prediction error was found in the third molar. Age prediction formulae provided here can be easily used in a variety of contexts where tooth length is measured from any isolated tooth.

A radiographic study of estimating age by deciduous mandibular canine and molar root resorption.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Root resorption of deciduous teeth is an important aspect of dental development; however, the accuracy of using root resorption as a method of estimating age has not been reported. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimating age from fractions of resorbed root in mandibular deciduous canines and molars, using published reference data. METHODS: The sample was 940 dental panoramic radiographs of dental patients aged 3-16. Deciduous mandibular canine and molar roots were staged into levels of resorption (one quarter, one half and three quarters). Reliability of root fractions was assessed using 193 duplicate readings and calculated using Kappa. Age was estimated using Moorrees et al. (1963), Fanning (1961), and O'Meara and Knott (1967), and the difference between dental and chronological ages tested using t-test. Accuracy was defined as a difference not significant to zero (P<0.05). RESULTS: Results show that assessment of levels of root resorption was excellent (Kappa 0.88-0.94). Some root fractions of molars estimated age accurately; however, the standard deviation was more than 2 years. The average difference between dental and chronological ages ranged from 0.12 to -2.04 years with standard deviation values up to 2 years and the most accurate method was O'Meara and Knott (1967). CONCLUSION: Fractions of deciduous root resorption can help to predict age.

Optimal trait scoring for age estimation.

OBJECTIVES: Little attention has been paid to questions about the applicability of parametric models to age estimation data and the related problem of how to adjust trait scoring in light of potential deviations from particular parametric models. This article addresses this deficit. METHODS: A Lagrange multiplier goodness-of-fit test is applied to two datasets to address the question of whether or not attainment ages for stages are log-normally distributed. The first dataset used in this article consists of scores of the Todd ten-phase system for the pubic symphysis obtained from 938 individuals with known ages. The second dataset consists of scores for 15 stages of formation for the second mandibular molar scored in 2,304 individuals of known age. RESULTS: For the Todd ten-phase system there is a significant departure from log-normally distributed ages of attainment. To obtain an acceptable goodness-of-fit statistic, Todd scores consequently are collapsed into an eight-phase system that maintains scores I through VII as individual scores but combines phases VIII through X into one phase. The 15-stage scoring system for the second mandibular molar has an acceptable fit to the log-normal distribution for ages of attainment. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the analysis of the Todd pubic symphysis scores show that researchers should use goodness-of-fit tests for parametric models before deciding to collapse scores. Further, such goodness-of-fit tests are an essential tool in answering questions concerning the suitability of various parametric models. For the 15-stage scoring of the second mandibular molar, the log-normal model is appropriate for attainment ages.

Predicting Agenesis of the Mandibular Second Premolar from Adjacent Teeth.

Early diagnosis of agenesis of the mandibular second premolar (P2) enhances management of the dental arch in the growing child. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship in the development of the mandibular first molar (M1) and first premolar (P1) at early stages of P2 (second premolar). Specifically, we ask if the likelihood of P2 agenesis can be predicted from adjacent developing teeth. We selected archived dental panoramic radiographs with P2 at crown formation stages (N = 212) and calculated the likelihood of P2 at initial mineralisation stage 'Ci' given the tooth stage of adjacent teeth. Our results show that the probability of observing mandibular P2 at initial mineralisation stage 'Ci' decreased as both the adjacent P1 and M1 matured. The modal stage at P2 'Ci' was P1 'Coc' (cusp outline complete) and M1 'Crc' (crown complete). Initial mineralisation of P2 was observed up to P1 'Crc' and M1 stage 'R½' (root half). The chance of observing P2 at least 'Coc' (coalescence of cusps) was considerably greater prior to these threshold stages compared to later stages of P1 and M1. These findings suggest that P2 is highly unlikely to develop if P1 is beyond 'Crc' and M1 is beyond 'R½'.

Age estimation in fossil hominins: comparing dental development in early Homo with modern humans.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have used molar tooth eruption as a comparative marker of maturation in early fossil hominins. However, tooth eruption and tooth formation are independent maturational processes. AIM: To determine whether estimates of age for entering a stage of dental development in three early hominin fossils fell within the distribution of a modern human sample. METHODS: This study used a comparative model of dental development to identify the stages of dental development most likely to provide information about length of the growth period in early fossil hominins. Age estimates for stages of dental development in fossils were superimposed onto a normal distribution of the same radiographically defined stages derived from a sample of 6540 children of diverse geographical origin. RESULTS: Both within the dentition of S7-37, from Sangiran, Java, but also for stages of two other specimens (KNM-WT 15000 from Kenya and StW 151 from South Africa), all age estimates for later stages of tooth formation fell within the modern sample range. CONCLUSIONS: A pattern appears to exist in early Homo where, both within and between developing dentitions, age estimates for stages of P4, M2 and M3 tooth formation fell consistently among the more advanced individuals of the modern human sample.

Controversies in age estimation from developing teeth.

BACKGROUND: Numerous dental reference data exist to estimate age from developing permanent teeth. AIM: To compare the performance of reference data that provide a point estimate using the developing second molar. METHODS: Performance of several methods estimating age using mandibular second molar formation was compared using the Maber test sample (age = 3-16) of 946 dental radiographs. Mean difference and mean absolute difference between dental and chronological ages were calculated. The percentage of individuals with mean absolute difference <1 year was counted across age group and tooth stage. Results for the choice of Demirjian or Moorrees tooth staging, pooled-sex, opposite sex reference data, selected stages (initial cusp tips, crown complete, root half and root complete) and statistical approaches were compared. RESULTS: Tooth reference data conditioning on age, particularly probit mean age (age-at-transition) adapted for age prediction performed best. Results using sex-specific reference data, Moorrees stages and selected Moorrees stages were marginally better than other methods. No method performed well for ages 15 and 16 years. CONCLUSION: Adapted maturity data L9a and N25a reference data for this tooth performed best across age categories and tooth stages, with a mean absolute difference of 0.8 year.

Albert Edwin William (LOMA) Miles (1912-2008) extracts from personal letters on dental matters.

Professor Miles (1912-2008) was a key player establishing dentistry as an academic subject. In the many letters he wrote to Helen Liversidge and me, he describes his involvement as Hon. Curator of the Odontological Museum, Editor Archives of Oral Biology, Assistant scientific editor of the BDJ. He writes about his association with Robert Maxwell and the Pergamon Press and his interests and friendships.

Combining radiographic and histological data for dental development to compare growth in the past and the present.

BACKGROUND: Being able to estimate the age at death of fossil hominins enables meaningful comparisons of both dental and general growth, past and present. AIM: The aim of this study was to use data for modern permanent canine formation derived from separate histological and radiographic studies to estimate the age at death of an early African Homo erectus specimen (KNM-WT 15 000) with a developing permanent maxillary canine. METHODS: Ground sections of 18 sexed modern human canines were used to reconstruct growth in tooth height along the enamel-dentine junction (EDJ) and onwards into root formation along the cement-dentine junction (CDJ). Daily rates of enamel and dentine formation were used to put a time scale to cumulative fractions of tooth height. RESULTS: Age estimates for KNM-WT 15 000 averaged 7.89-8.8 years of age (range = 6.6-10.3 years) and were close to previous histological estimates for this individual (7.6-8.8 years). CONCLUSIONS: Stages of dental development in KNM-WT 15 000 were easily accommodated within this age distribution of a modern sample. However, body mass and stature estimates for KNM-WT 15 000 fell well beyond those reported for a modern sample of 438 Sudanese children aged between 7.0-10 years.